Dunning-Kruger isn't what you think

In 1999, David Dunning and Justin Kruger gave students tests on grammar and logic, then asked them to estimate their own scores. The worst performers didn't think they were the best, as the meme claims: they thought they were "a bit above average". Sitting at the 12th percentile, they placed themselves at the 62nd.

The nuance matters. The effect isn't "stupid people think they're geniuses" — it's something more uncomfortable: the skills you need to do something well are the same ones you need to notice you're doing it badly. Without them, your mistakes are invisible to you.

And there's a second half almost nobody quotes: the top performers rated themselves below their real level. It felt easy to them, so they assumed it was easy for everyone.

Double moral: absolute confidence is suspicious, and that brilliant person who doubts themselves probably knows more than you do.